Hezbollah’s next move crucial as Lebanon protests continue

The Lebanese people have taken to the streets to protest against a rotten political system that has wrecked their lives for decades. A million-and-a-half men, women, teenagers and children have gathered in all parts of Lebanon. Christians, Sunnis, Shiites and Druze have shouted their deep anger, targeting the whole political class, from President Michel Aoun to his son-in-law and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and his wife Randa, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

They were chanting “sawra, sawra, sawra” (revolution) against the corruption of the whole political class that is accused of impoverishing them, depriving them of basic needs such as electricity, drinking water, health care and education. Lebanese of all social backgrounds were out in the streets asking the ministers and officials to go. They were repeating “killon, killon” (all) have to go, demanding a new parliamentary election.

While these uniquely strong protests were going on, the powerful Hezbollah leader Nasrallah addressed the protesters, claiming he understood them, while at the same time warning any government members against resigning. Nasrallah openly insisted that the present political system was his own choice. Aoun and Bassil are his Christian allies and partners, and Hezbollah needs Hariri because he is the only Sunni leader who had, until the recent uprising, a popular base.

Nasrallah wants Christian and Muslim cover for his power and rule over the country. He is the de facto maker of presidents. Nasrallah warned — without saying their names — Hariri, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Christian party leader Samir Geagea against resigning. He said that those who leave government will be prosecuted. Geagea decided to withdraw his four ministers from the Cabinet but Hariri did not resign, instead presenting a list of reforms to address the growing crisis. The prime minister addressed the protesters, telling them that he could make these reforms thanks to them. Jumblatt did not withdraw his ministers, though he believes Hariri’s reforms are not enough.

However, the protesters continued chanting that all politicians have to go and demanded an independent government. They shouted that they do not believe that the political class, which has failed for years to fulfill the people’s basic needs, will now do so in just a few days. 

The ongoing message of the protesters cut across all sectarian divisions. And all through these protests the pledge of allegiance made to his country by late Lebanese journalist Gebran Tueni, who was assassinated in 2005 for his opposition to Syria’s presence in the country, was heard repeatedly: “Let us swear for the unity of Muslims and Christians and for a great Lebanon.”

Nasrallah wants Christian and Muslim cover for his power and rule over the country.

Randa Takieddine

The question that prevails in the mind of many observers of this exceptional popular pressure is what will be Nasrallah’s next move. He has already intimidated the Lebanese by saying that Hezbollah has the means to order its members to march across the country and “reverse the Lebanese equation,” but he added in his arrogant speech that he had not decided to do it yet. The political system is presently partly held hostage by Hezbollah when it comes to Hariri and his allies in government, and partly through Aoun and Bassil, the latter being the protesters’ most hated and targeted political figure. The Lebanese army has tried, peacefully, to open the main roads blocked by protesters to enable the emergency transport of people and food. It also made a statement committing itself to protecting the protesters, who have praised the army all through the demonstrations. 

Will Nasrallah, whose own Shiite community took to the streets in the southern cities of Tyre and Nabatieh, risk confronting the demonstrators with his own armed militia, like he did in Syria to protect Bashar Assad s regime? Lebanon is not Syria. If Hezbollah and its Christian allies decide to confront the protesters, it would mean a showdown with the Lebanese army — a dramatic outcome for Lebanon. The real solution would be the surrender of Hezbollah’s arms to the army.

Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah are the essential cause of the corruption, instability and poor-quality governments that have plagued Lebanon for decades. If nothing changes after this “Lebanese spring,” it will be because of this repressive, pro-Iranian party that has taken the country hostage to please its masters in Tehran. Hezbollah has brought Lebanon to the brink. What Lebanon will look like after these protests is the worrying thought now in the minds of all honest patriots.