French and Iranian masks slip with G7 trap

Early in my Washington career, I met with a very senior German official to discuss Europe’s (correct) objections to America’s determination to instigate the Iraq War. Polished, charming and vaguely condescending, the policymaker disarmingly suggested that all Europe wanted was for the US to talk to its allies before acting.

I saw through this obvious ruse for what it was, blandly replying: “Do you want to talk, or do you want to have a veto over our use of our own army?” Nonplussed at being caught out, the statesmen ended our conversation, for of course what he wanted was to turn “talking” (endless negotiations) into power over American decision-making.                      

This has been declining Europe’s playbook now for a generation, making a fetish out of diplomacy — talking for talking’s sake — as a subterranean way to stop its stronger American ally from acting, for good or ill.

In French President Emmanuel Macron, we can see a late flowering of this particular sort of European diplomat. Poised, confident, charming, driven and utterly assured of his correctness, Macron has tried to play his country’s relatively poor diplomatic cards with skill.

In the case of the Iranian nuclear crisis, it is little secret to anyone that the Elysee Palace (as well as Berlin) sees President Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” as the greatest threat to peace in the Middle East, precisely because the policy has been demonstrably successful in driving the already mismanaged Iranian economy to its knees, imperiling the sacred (to European eyes) 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Accordingly, Macron laid his diplomatic trap at the G7 meeting he has just finished hosting in the south of France. Seemingly unbeknownst to the Americans, the French president invited a secret guest to the conclave: Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, a key signatory of the JCPOA. Having Zarif there allowed Macron the possibility of shuttling between the American and Iranian camps, placing his stamp on any possible agreement.

Dangling the enticing carrot of a diplomatic breakthrough, Macron noted that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Trump are both scheduled to be at the UN General Assembly in New York in mid-September. All that was needed to get these “historic” talks was for a few simple terms to be agreed.

Of course, as ever in diplomacy, the devil is in the detail. Here Macron’s mask slipped, revealing the game he was playing, which was to return the world to the balmy JCPOA days of Barack Obama, making Trump reverse his highly successful, and highly disruptive, policy toward Iran.

French officials ingratiatingly briefed a willing press corps that the terms would roughly involve US-Iranian talks being restarted once the US agreed to a partial rollback of its sanctions in return for full Iranian compliance with the JCPOA. While this is an exact shopping list of all Europe’s desires regarding the conflict, it also amounts to a terrible deal for the US, as it is precisely the White House’s maximum pressure campaign that has finally put the economic screws to Tehran.

It is precisely the White House’s maximum pressure campaign that has finally put the economic screws to Tehran.

Dr. John C. Hulsman

But the president did not bite. While he agreed to whittle down the US conditions that Iran had to meet for talks to proceed from the prior 12 to just three — Iran must not be allowed to possess an active nuclear weapons program, must have real limits on its ballistic missiles, and must agree to an extension of the time frames in the JCPOA (presently many of the provisions expire in 2030) so Tehran cannot simply wait the rest of the world out — Trump wisely did not take the bait.

At the press conference ending the G7 summit, Macron pressed, saying he hoped that Trump and Rouhani would soon have direct talks. Trump responded, saying it was “too soon” for such a meeting. The maximum pressure policy, which has been so successful in denting Iranian economic power, remains in place.

But, if the French mask slipped at the end of the G7 meeting, so too did that of Iran. Last Monday, playing along with Paris, Rouhani seemingly benignly noted that both sides “shouldn’t miss an opportunity” for engagement, endorsing the old European tactic of agreeing to negotiations in return for others making concessions. Furiously backpedaling in the face of Trump’s polite refusal, Rouhani showed his true face to the world, saying that the president must first lift all sanctions on Iran before Tehran will deign to speak with him.

For both Macron and Rouhani — for their own very different reasons — this has always been about curtailing the highly effective American policy of maximum pressure toward Iran. Its critics should keep in mind that, if America’s regional rival is so against what the White House is doing, it stands to reason that the US is on precisely the right track in balancing against Iranian delusions of grandeur in the Middle East.