How Gaza could be preventing a US attack on Iran

While US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran over the past few weeks, even deploying additional B-2 Spirit Bombers to Diego Garcia and other military assets across the surrounding region, an assault on Iranian territory will be no walk in the park. Although it seems somewhat counter-intuitive, Gaza could be their greatest possible hurdle.

There have been numerous analyses attempting to predict how a US attack on Iran could potentially unfold, yet all of them appear to be missing the biggest wild-card in the entire region. Some political analysts have argued that Washington would not dare launch any kind of direct assault, as others claim that the deployment of nuclear weapons by the Americans is all but a guarantee.

A more sober look at the confines in which the United States can act, suggests that a series of battles, rather than a regime change war, is the most likely conflict to occur in the event that any assault is committed. This ultimately boils down to three primary factors: 

1. The destructive potential that Iran possesses.
2. The demonstrated history of pragmatism on behalf of the leadership in Tehran.
3. The need to close various military fronts that the Israelis keep open.

The first point is often used as a means to argue that the US is too intimidated to launch any kind of significant assault against the Iranian State. While this assessment is not without basis, it also falls short of the mark, as the Israelis have themselves launched [very] limited strikes against Iran, not triggering a total war in response. Also, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, demonstrates that acting inside Iranian territory does not necessitate an immediate response.

Instead, the takeaway here when it comes to the power wielded by the Islamic Republic, is that it possesses the missile and drone power to devastate every single US military base in the entire region and, of course, any targets it chooses in occupied Palestine. Knowing this, the US going all the way against Iran means triggering a response that could completely devastate the Israeli regime.

Even in the event that the US was to open the war with nuclear strikes, it is highly unlikely that it would prove capable of eliminating all of the missile bases across Iran. In fact, the use of the US’s B-2 Bombers in Yemen has proven that it cannot even destroy Ansar Allah’s fortified missile bases. So, they would have to anticipate that Iran would throw everything in their arsenal at them in such an insane assault. It seems outlandish and too irrational a move, even for Donald Trump.

As for the tactic of triggering a hybrid war against Iran, this too is unlikely to deliver the desired results and would backfire tremendously. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), alongside the Iranian army, recently carried out a massive four-month-long drill to deal with such an attack, even testing the readiness of field hospitals. If you take the combined power of the IRGC, Iranian Armed Forces, and the Basij Paramilitary Forces, Iran could certainly put together a military force of millions. It is also a large country, roughly three times the size of Iraq, and is extremely mountainous, leaving room for mistakes. 

The second point, regarding Iranian pragmatism, is self-evident. Tehran has repeatedly refrained from escalating military conflicts, even when this would have been in its best interests to do so at certain times. It have always been open to negotiation, mediation, and has shown enormous restraint, even when its nuclear scientists were repeatedly assassinated by Israeli agents on Iranian soil.

The third point to keep in mind here is the fact that the Zionist Entity has opened up the Lebanese, Syrian, West Bank, Gaza, and Yemen fronts. Scores have not yet been settled, no truce is ready to hold, and the region remains at a boiling point. A limited conflict between the Zionist Entity and US on one side, and Iran on the other, could potentially lead to such a predicament where various fronts would simultaneously close as a result. Although this is an enormous risk to take for both “Tel Aviv” and Washington.

A Limited US-Iran War And Gaza

In the event that a limited US-Iran war was to break out, it would almost certainly be triggered by the United States or the Israelis. It is clear that Iran will defend itself, but unlikely that it would itself start the war. If it fights in defense, it also looks better to the Iranian public than if it should initiate the war too.

Keep in mind that the scenario I lay out below is not going to be accurate, and this is simply an example of something that could lead to a limited war. It does not necessarily reflect what will happen in reality, but is important in order to set up the following points about the Israelis.

Any initial US wave of attacks will no doubt inflict losses, after all it has the most powerful military in the world. The Iranian air defences would do their best to break up the attack and reduce its effectiveness, while assassinations would likely be a tactic used by the US also. If the Americans were to choose a series of military and government targets, while perhaps the Israelis choose to launch strikes at nuclear facilities, this is certainly something that the Iranians could put under control. 

Short of using nuclear weapons against Iranian nuclear facilities, the damage that could be inflicted is only likely to set Tehran’s nuclear program back a few years. If this is also combined with conventional attacks on missile bases, it is highly improbable that much of Iran’s arsenal will be impacted. At this point, Iran will be able to assess the situation and respond.

Although the response would be tough, to such an attack as outlined above, it does not hypothetically have to result in an all out escalation immediately, instead turning into a back and forth.

Judging by the previous blows dealt against the Zionist regime – in Iran’s Operation True Promise 1 and 2 attacks – the most probable first targets are going to be military bases in the event that Iran retaliates within the confines of a limited conflict. In such a scenario, it is likely that waves of missiles and drones would be fired towards Israeli military positions and air bases.

With the Israeli air force all but grounded, forcing it to operate in a limited capacity, likely through places like Cyprus, Lebanese Hezbollah would be presented with a historic opportunity to reclaim their occupied lands in the south. Given the absence of the Israeli military’s top asset and advantage, the overwhelming power of its air force, the Zionist regime would be forced to throw a huge amount of its remaining ground assets and forces at the Lebanon front.

Simultaneously, Hezbollah could also fire its own rockets, missiles and drones, striking Israeli positions, while seeking to secure the south of Lebanon. Assuming the Lebanese group was to limit its goals to recapturing their own territory, then this could be a means to hypothetically close the front against the Israelis, or at least restore the prestige lost last September and avenge some 3,000 deaths, including the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Then there is the biggest wildcard, Gaza. If there is no ceasefire between the Zionists and the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Resistance will be in the position to take advantage of a huge opening. If the Israeli air force is grounded, due to Iranian missile strikes, or at least its ability to function at full form is swept from under it, then this severely weakens the Israeli capability to defend its troops.

If Hezbollah also pushes the Israelis to focus their ground forces in the north, then the already drained and demoralised Zionist military will be in the weakest position it has perhaps ever found itself in. Then comes the big question, with the situation in the Gaza Strip being so dire amidst the ongoing Genocide, what will the Palestinian armed factions decide to do?

In this event, they could take a make or break risk, one which could end with Palestinian fighters reaching as far as occupied al-Quds [Jerusalem], the other being a deadly fight to the death. Without going into all of the ins and outs of what that could look like, as it is impossible to even tell, a dramatic decision could be taken due to the horrifying predicament of Gaza, a decision that no other actor would be capable of even considering.

The US and the Israelis may or may not understand the situation in front of them with Gaza, but if they do have some idea of what kind of offensive is possible, they may be seeking to close a ceasefire deal in order to prevent it.

At the end of the day, while the US may be pushed by the Zionist Lobby in Washington to commit an attack against Iran, they will not likely take a decision that risks the total defeat of the Israeli regime. However, the US and their Israeli allies appear to be living under the illusion that they can continually underestimate the will of the Palestinian Resistance factions and that the Zionist regime will survive anything. This assessment is wrong, and without a just peace, the Palestinian people will never end their struggle.