Israel cannot afford a war with Lebanon

Since Hezbollah decided to fire the first round of Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) against “Israel’s” military positions in northern occupied Palestine on October 8, hot smoke has been blowing out of the ears of the Zionist entity ad nauseam.

The threat of war has been looming over both Lebanon and “Israel” since then, with Zionist leaders threatening to bomb Beirut back to the Stone Age or to make Lebanon’s south resemble Gaza. In other words, if Lebanon continues to support the Palestinian Resistance, “Israel” will implement a scorched earth policy in the revolutionary Lebanese villages.

These threats were nothing but hot smoke being blown out of puffy-faced Zionist officials who feared Hezbollah attacks against their northern settlements since pulling out of the previous war fought against Lebanon. Now, their blood pressure has only risen as their forces have been left weakened and barking with no bite, as we will show.

The fact of the matter is that after “Israel’s” defeat in two previous bouts against Lebanon, during which Hezbollah was still in the early stages of developing its capabilities, “Israel” now struggles to prove itself after 10 months of war against guerilla fighters in Gaza. With an exhausted army, a damaged public image, and a weakened economy, “Israel” cannot afford to open up another front against Hezbollah.

Prior bouts against Lebanon

1982

Zionist forces invaded Lebanon in July 1982in the midst of Lebanon’s bloody Civil War as part of its “Peace of the Galilee” operation. Publicly, the objective was to protect their northern settlements from their main rivals at the time, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).

However, given the PLO’s lack of capabilities during the invasion, “Israel” went on a rampage all the way to the Lebanese University campus in Hadath, on the outskirts of Beirut, where they would set up base in the campus’s science building.

The invading army would clash with Resistance fighters from the Amal Movement, Palestinian fighters, the Lebanese National Movement, and Syrian forces who oversaw the Aramoun area.

Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s second-in-command, wrote in his 2005 book Hezbollah: The Story From Within:

“Beirut lived its toughest, most grueling days under destructive Israeli aerial bombardment. The capital’s numerous points of entry fell under siege, supplies grew scarce; life came to a halt; a great number of people were displaced, died or were injured, and many a building collapsed on those inside.”

Following a US-brokered deal between the PLO and “Israel” following the invasion of the Lebanese territory, Yasser Arafat’s party departed Lebanon, taking with them small arms. This would be the first of a number of knots that the PLO leadership would later tie with “Israel”. On August 12 of that year, US, French, British, and Italian troops arrived in Lebanon to oversee the implementation of the deal.

The other objective of “Israel’s” operation, not outright spoken of, was to prop up its allies in Lebanon, namely their proxy, the South Lebanese Army (Lahad), and to see that their allied Kataeb Party candidate Bashir Gemayel succeeded as president.

The situation in Lebanon continued to escalate rapidly, Gemayel was elected as the Lebanese Republic’s seventh president under the supervision of the invading Israeli forces on August 23. After 22 days, on September 14, the Israeli ally was assassinated, leading the Zionist army to expand its invasion of Beirut, and taking over the Sabra and Shatila camps. Zionist troops would later invade Palestinian camps and allow allied Lebanese Forces troops to enter, leading to the massacre of the Palestinian and Lebanese civilians residing there.

Throughout this invasion and crimes perpetrated by Zionist forces, and coming off the victory of Imam Khomeini’s Islamic revolution in Iran three years prior, a small group of revolutionaries viewed the cancerous Zionist cell in the region as a goliath that needed to be struck and taken down by David’s humble slingshot. This was the birth of Hezbollah.

The term “humble” isn’t used to belittle the early days of Hezbollah, but rather to reflect the conventional military perspective of the time. The group was relatively small, a barely-trained group of men with modest Soviet weapons. They came together driven by their religious values, love of the land, and a sense of duty to protect their people against the invading oppressors.

Since the start of their battles against the Zionist entity, Hezbollah knew that attacking the minds of the enemy would help them crack the foundation of the army, which had beaten the great armies of the Arab nations in years prior.

On November 11, 1982, following these prompt developments, the Resistance would carry out its first martyrdom operation against an Israeli barracks in Tyr, South Lebanon. This operation shook the Israeli invader to the core.

A Peugeot 504, packed with explosives, drove into the 11-story Israeli base and exploded, leveling the building and killing 74 Zionist troops stationed there. It was later revealed that the driver was Martyr Ahmad Qasir. Hezbollah took credit for the operation in the following years when they went public with the details.

“Israel” kept the incident under wraps for 45 years, claiming that the explosion was caused by a gas leak. Tel Aviv waited until global attention was focused on the developments of Al-Aqsa Flood before secretly announcing that Hezbollah was responsible for the attack.

Many operations under the Hezbollah flag would be carried out against the Israeli enemy who was occupying South Lebanon. After 20 years, the party succeeded in expelling the occupying force along with their allied Lahad army who, as Sheikh Qassem writes, “fled after realizing they had been left behind by the Israeli forces with their food still steaming on dinner tables”.

In his Victory Day speech, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah declared that the villagers who fought against the most advanced army in the region, guided by their trust and faith in God’s plans, had triumphed. He proclaimed that David had conquered Goliath, striking a decisive blow against the colonial beast.

“Israel, which owns nuclear weapons and the strongest air fleets in the region is, by God, weaker than a spider web”, Sayyid Nasrallah said.

2006

Battered and humiliated while coming off the back of the Second Intifada from 2000-2005, the Israeli Army was itching to restore its image and retake the spot of the undefeated regional power.

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah carried out Operation True Promise. This operation used tactics similar to what we are witnessing today in Al-Aqsa Flood, including disabling the Zionist’s video surveillance systems to blind them before launching the attack.

Hezbollah’s 2006 operation featured an ambush of Israeli soldiers patrolling the border area, under the pretext of initiating a prisoner swap with Tel Aviv. After a less than 10 minute-ambush, the Resistance captured two Israeli soldiers and killed 8 others. Hezbollah’s attack on the initial Humvee, combined with the Israeli army’s misguided attempts to bring back the captives, led to further exposure to IEDs and mortar fire.

“Israel” went ballistic following the successful operation launched by the Lebanese Islamic Resistance, invoking their Hannibal Directive in an attempt to limit Hezbollah’s movements with the kidnapped soldiers. This protocol dictates that the Israeli army would do everything to limit the movement of an opposing force if their soldiers are captured, even if it means killing their own personnel.

Speaking about the incident in which soldiers were kidnapped by Hezbollah fighters, a senior Israeli official said, “If we had found them, we would have hit them, even if it meant killing the soldiers.”

The Zionist army faced many humiliating losses throughout the multiple battles that occurred in the 2006 July war, most famously in the battle of Bint Jbeil, where 5,000 Israeli soldiers failed to occupy the South Lebanese town protected by 100-150 Hezbollah fighters (per Israeli figures).

Israeli state-owned media harassed the army for this embarrassing failure, denouncing the operations as “idiotic military maneuvers.”

By all accounts, the Israeli army was undertrained and unprepared for what they faced in Lebanon. Hezbollah was no longer the same group of young fighters cutting their teeth at resisting what was once considered an unbeatable force. It had evolved into a battle-hardened resistance, with new technology, weapons, and tactics to confront the invading enemy.

After 33 days of resistance from guerilla fighters against trained military personnel, Hezbollah achieved victory against the Zionist entity, once again raising their heads against the spoiled child of Western colonialism, humiliating it.

The Israeli regime has been attempting to redeem itself against Hezbollah for showing the world that the IOF are vulnerable, and could have their heads cracked open through the faith of revolutionary men.

“We are the children of that Imam who said: Do you threaten me with death?Death is normal for us and our dignity from God is martyrdom”, Sayyid Hassan said during his Victory Day speech on September 22, 2006.

“Today, we celebrate the significant historic divine and strategic victory”, Sayyid Hassan reiterated. “How can the human mind fathom that a few thousand of your sons from the Lebanese resistance… would stand in the open ground for 33 days, exposed to the open skies without air cover, facing the strongest air force in the Middle East, aided by an air bridge to deliver smart bombs from America, via Britain to ‘Israel’, facing 40,000 officers and soldiers, four brigades of elite forces, three battalions from the Army Reserve and challenging the strongest tank in the world and the most powerful army in the region.”

The 2006 war would remain a nightmare for the Israeli soldiers, with severed limbs and psychological scars lasting a lifetime. Recorded evidence shows that Zionist soldiers know that another war against Lebanon since 2006 would be fatal, as the hand of Hezbollah was pressing the Zionist entity’s throat. The images of overturned, burning Merkava tanks remain engraved in the minds of Israeli foot soldiers.

Following this war, Hezbollah became known on a global scale, both pro and anti-Resistance media admitting the fact that Hezbollah had shattered the knees and ripped out the tongue of the Zionist entity.

In an interview with Glenn Beck, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stared on with disgust and contempt, as he was faced with the harsh reality that the world believed Hezbollah won the war.

“For you to lose that war was pretty significant. And I don`t know if you perceive it as a loss, but it certainly was a shift of perception by the rest of the world”, Beck asked the Israeli prime minister, to which the latter responded, “It certainly wasn`t a victory. I think basically, the war was not won because we lacked a strategy.”

Never a moment to rest

Since the second Israeli retreat from Lebanon, the entity largely withdrew from expansive military operations. The only wars it engaged in were against growing Palestinian Resistance groups, which, in terms of their strength, were reminiscent of Hezbollah in its early days, though not in their history.

After 2006, “Israel” launched wars against Gaza on four occasions: 2008 to 2009 under “Operation Cast Lead”, 2012 in “Operation Pillar of Defense”, in 2014 under “Operation Protective Edge”, and in 2021 under “Operation Guardian of the Walls”. Throughout these years, the Israeli army also conducted terrorist attacks against the Lebanese Resistance and Syrian government-allied groups in Syria.

Whereas “Israel’s” battles were sporadic or cheap shots against Resistance forces, Hezbollah joined the fight on the ground against the Western-backed ISIS militants in Syria.

Recently, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, revealed that Hezbollah units had gone to Iraq according to the Fatwa issued by Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Sistani to take up arms against the militant force wreaking havoc on Iraq.

Hezbollah officially joined in the fight against Western-backed takfiri terrorism in 2012, and proved itself vital in the fight, taking over eight bordering villages in the Qusayr District in Syria to prevent terrorist forces from bleeding into Lebanon.

The Lebanese Resistance’s fight would continue, ensuring to Lebanon’s population and politicians – some of whom may have opposed involvement – that this struggle was for the greater good of the region. It aimed to prevent Lebanon’s largest neighbor from falling into the hands of the US, British, and takfiri forces.

As the years went on in the war in Syria, Hezbollah proved itself vital in turning the tide, preventing Syria from nearly falling into the hands of takfiri fighters and shifting the momentum back in favor of the government. Without Hezbollah and other allies, the outcome of the war may have been devastating for the region.

Hezbollah is not the same group of guerillas from the 80s

The Israeli Army quickly learned that Hezbollah was now much more advanced than it was in previous battles. After the first four months, on January 18, Israeli media reported that “The Israeli army is surprised by the size of Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the border with Lebanon.”

Al-Aqsa Flood was successful because the Israelis underestimated the Palestinian Resistance, viewing it as a bug they could easily squash. Then the paratroopers came, taking settlement after settlement, and bringing captives back to Gaza. All the goals that “Israel” had set for itself since October in response to the Palestinian Resistance had not been met. Military officials acknowledged that “Israel” has achieved all it can militarily in Gaza, leaving diplomacy as their only remaining option. In Hezbollah’s case, “Israel” fell into every trap set on the battlefield.

Later on, during the war, on July 5, Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported, “the Israeli leadership lacks updated information on the threat it faces in the war with Hezbollah. The general context in which the war is unfolding during these months is different and new.”

The operations carried out by Hezbollah in plucking out the eyes of the Israeli army during the battle, showed that their projectiles have been made and developed in a way that can deter the millions of dollars of radar and surface-to-surface defense systems the Israeli society relies on. Hezbollah tore apart the image of “Israel” and depicted it as a wet rag dancing in the wind.

For example, the Lebanese Islamic Resistance published a video showing a successful operation against an Israeli site targeted by a one-way drone designed to destroy an Iron Dome battery, using an anti-projectile system of a range of 3.5km.

Tel Aviv was once considered to have all the intelligence it needed on Hezbollah. However, they fell into the major trap that is key to avoid in the book of war; never underestimate your enemy.

In a recent video published by Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, a high-ranking official in Hezbollah’s air force, responsible for the Lebanese Islamic Resistance’s drone operations, explained that Hezbollah was aware of the strength of “Israel’s” surveillance systems. Knowing that their drone testing would be exposed to enemy eyes, the Resistance strategically revealed only as much as was necessary.

The Israeli army fell right into the trap set by Hezbollah, conducting mock operations over enemy territory with cheaply made drones specifically designed to be targeted and shot down by Israeli defenses. The Zionist regime boasted about their superior air defense systems; unaware that the Islamic resistance was playing the long game – taking notes and finding out ways to make their projectiles undetectable by air defense systems and immune to jamming devices.

Through this method of research and development, not only have Hezbollah’s attack drones become stronger, but Hezbollah’s surveillance capabilities have also reached unprecedented levels. The Hoopoe drone has completely exposed the occupied North, and the intelligence it gathered has been shared with the rest of the Resistance Axis, which have also proven to be much stronger than what the Zionist regime once believed.

Israeli media has expressed anxiety over the security implications of this development. Haaretz reported on July 10, following the release of Hezbollah’s second Hoopoe drone episode, “The concern in Hezbollah’s videos is that the organization succeeded in gathering highly modern visual intelligence in real-time about the deployment of units in the North and the situation in various bases.”

The Israeli daily continues, “The video editors highlight intelligence facilities, radars, Iron Dome launch platforms, and other missile system launch platforms, documenting combat units, including infantry, armored vehicles, and artillery batteries […] Over the past 10 months, the party has proven its ability not only to film these bases from the air but also to target them with rockets and suicide drones.”

Settler social media posts have also been used by Hezbollah to find, bypass, and destroy defense systems like the Iron Dome, turning settlers into pawns as a means towards the Lebanese Resistance’s goals.

The nightmare of Hezbollah is etched in the minds of Israelis. Zionist forces have previously said that a war with Hezbollah would be devastating, and Israeli media and close government officials agree with that statement. Israeli Minister of Security, Yoav Gallant, has publicly stated that Netanyahu’s “total victory” slogan was nothing but “gibberish”, widening the cracks within the Israeli government.

A weakened and exhausted army unable to even carry out training drills, with a depleted arsenal, including their esteemed Merkava tanks, would be unable to take on a group like Hezbollah, which stands as a much more mobilized and professional fighting force than in the past.

“Israel” has bitten off more than it can chew by attempting to open up a multi-front war. In Gaza, none of the goals set since October have been achieved by the Israeli army, and Hamas, along with other Palestinian Resistance factions, is only growing more organized with each passing day.

Over the past 10 months, “Israel” has essentially shown us what a death drive looks like in practice. The entity struck Iranian territory earlier this year, and Iran responded, showing that it has the technology to bypass all defenses and hit their targets. Ansar Allah in Yemen has shown it possible to fly suicide drones into the economic heart of the entity. As a reminder, Hezbollah’s intelligence on northern occupied Palestine has been shared with the broader Axis of Resistance.

So what would the Israeli entity do with this information? They targeted Ismail Hanieh in Iran, making their nightmare a reality: Yahya Sinwar became the head of Hamas. They gave Iran a plausible cause to retaliate. The Zionist entity also targeted Hodeidah, giving the Yemenis a green light to retaliate. And now, following the attack that led to the martyrdom of Sayyid Fouad Shokor of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Islamic Resistance will retaliate.

The three major players in the Axis of Resistance are all waiting for the right moment to strike. Until then, they’ve opted for psychological warfare intended to break the Israelis’ mind.

For Hezbollah, the recent reveal of a tunnel missile base, Imad 4, has made headlines, not only due to the fact that it shows the professional and high-class capabilities that this non-state actor holds, but also that their missiles are at the ready if “Israel” decides to make the foolish mistake of fully opening a front against Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s Secretary General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah had warned “Israel” two months prior to the launch of Al-Aqsa Flood, that the effects would not be like the decades-long fight at the end of the 20^th century, nor would they be like the 33-day war in 2006, “I say to the enemy: According to all evidence, you will be returned to the Stone Age if you go to war.”