Predatory birds of a feather plotting mayhem together

For his first major foreign visit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (excluding a trip to Turkmenistan), what destination did Vladimir Putin select to demonstrate that he still possesses powerful, prosperous and popular friends on the global stage? He was, of course, lavishly hosted in Russia’s own backyard by the foremost state sponsor of terrorism and militancy — Iran!

As US President Joe Biden’s National Security Council spokesman John Kirby put it, this trip to Tehran reeked of “desperation,” illustrating how isolated and ostracized Russia has become. “Iran is the center of dynamic diplomacy,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian proclaimed on Twitter, with no apparent irony. Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib hubristically declared that “the Tehran summit showed Iran’s astuteness and its mighty foreign policy in the region, and that it can act as the main axis of a new regional and global multilateral order.”

Although Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei put on their best grimaces for the world’s cameras, Putin didn’t come to Tehran looking for love — he came for weapons. US officials confirmed that Moscow was seeking hundreds of Iranian drones to fill a critical battlefield gap, and that Tehran would soon start training Russian troops on how to use them.

Iran has meanwhile been seeking to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems, Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, Yak 130 training jets and T-90 tanks. Until recently, the Kremlin had refused the ayatollahs’ requests for weapons deals and closer economic cooperation, but Russia’s humiliating fall from international grace in 2022 fundamentally changes the dynamic of this relationship.

Iran went from sitting on the fence regarding Ukraine, to Kremlin cheerleader. “If the road had been open to NATO, it wouldn’t have recognized any limit or boundary,” Khamenei frothed, speculating randomly that Western powers would otherwise have “waged war” to recapture Crimea.

“Russia and Iran still don’t trust one another, but now need each other more than ever … This is no longer a partnership of choice, but an alliance of necessity,” said Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group.

Comparisons to Biden’s participation in the Jeddah summit couldn’t have been starker — a broad-based alliance of flourishing and advanced states, with common security and economic interests.

Russia and Iran are fierce commercial rivals, and Tehran has been losing out as Moscow continues slashing oil prices to win unprincipled new buyers. Over three months Iranian monthly exports of oil by-products dropped from 430,000 to 330,000 tons, according to Iranian statistics. East Asian buyers of Iranian steel have likewise been shifting to discounted Russian steel, Iranian newspapers begrudgingly reported.

Although Putin noted that Iran-Russia bilateral trade had increased 81 percent over the past year, this was from a low base.

Gaffe-prone Russian ambassador to Tehran, Levan Dzhagaryan, upset the Iranian public by claiming ahead of the visit that “Iran owes us hundreds of millions of euros and doesn’t pay.” Some Iranians speculated that this statement prepared the ground for the further plundering of Iran’s resources, given that the debt reportedly related to Russia’s construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Dzhagaryan earlier provoked offence by claiming that the non-availability of vodka and the enforcement of the hijab, were among the reasons Russian tourists weren’t flooding to Tehran. One could easily imagine him offering far less diplomatic justifications!

Russia and Iran are fierce commercial rivals, and Tehran has been losing out as Moscow continues slashing oil prices to win unprincipled new buyers.

Baria Alamuddin

Although Iranian politicians obediently characterized Russia as Iran’s “most strategic partner,” for many Iranians this glossed over a bitter one-way historical relationship in which Russia had repeatedly occupied and ravaged Iranian territory, most recently during the Second World War. Iranians have meanwhile voiced concerns about being shackled into a 25-year $400-billion cooperation program with China, triggering fears that their leaders have mortgaged the national economy and infrastructure to Beijing.

Iranian bloggers voiced the sentiment that with friends like Russia and China, who needed enemies?

The participation of a stone-faced Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan poured gasoline over all this awkwardness. An excruciating video of Putin being kept waiting to meet Erdogan — characterized as revenge for a similar previous slight — added to perceptions that these three countries were scarcely bothering to keep mutual suspicions and enmities under wraps.

Exemplifying these tensions while the summit was underway, Turkey fired missiles into northern Iraq, reportedly hitting a tourist resort and killing numerous citizens. Hours later, pro-Iran militias struck back against Turkish bases in Iraq, in just the latest flare-up in a pattern of ongoing proxy skirmishes.

Once Turkey embarks upon its long-heralded operation in Syria, such tensions will soar to new levels. Erdogan pledged to “drive out the centers of evil” which target Turkey’s security. Along with the long-suffering Kurds, Erdogan will be seeking to cut pro-Iranian militias down to size. He demanded that Russia and Iran “support Turkey in this fight,” warning that parts of Syria had turned into a “bed of terror.” A new Turkish incursion in Syria will “harm Turkey, Syria and the entire region and will benefit terrorists,” Khamenei belligerently countered.

Meanwhile, a Turkey-brokered deal for Putin allowing Ukrainian wheat to be exported, to stave off worldwide grain shortages, was immediately thrown into disarray when Russia bombed the Black Sea port from which the wheat would have been exported.

There have also been strange goings-on in Tehran, with reports surfacing that Mossad agents inside Iran had captured an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp operative and forced him to provide information about weapon shipments to Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Such elements are acting with damning impunity inside Iran, sabotaging strategic targets and assassinating nuclear scientists and IRGC officials.

Such events serve as a reminder of the fragility and shortcomings of these countries.

• Baria Alamuddin