Spain remains favorites, despite the loss to Ukraine
Spain opened the second round of Nations League matches with a loss to Ukraine, which, despite everything, allows him to continue as leader of Group 4 of League A. With two rounds to go before the conclusion of the first phase, The National Team starts as the favorite to fight for the title in October 2021. However, it is still too early to take anything for granted.
The format states that the leaders of each of the League A groups play a playoff to the semifinals and final at a neutral venue, to crown a champion. This year, the quarters are automatically relegated to League B. The latter is still a problem for Spain, although unlikely Since in order to be relegated, Switzerland would have to win its two games, the National Team lose both and Ukraine to beat Germany. The battle for the head, on the contrary, leaves a thousand cabal. Spain will not be able to get the ticket in the next match, whatever the results:
What happens if … Spain beats Switzerland?
If Spain wins the next round, it would have 10 points. Germany and Ukraine would then decide in their party who fights for the first place with those of Luis Enrique. In the event of a tie, the two would win seven points. That is, three of us. The personal ‘goal average’ with Ukraine would be won and with those of Löw, still pending.
There could also be a triple draw. In that case, Germany would add eight points in direct confrontations, against the four of Spain and Ukraine. Then the Germans would be the leaders.
If Germany wins in Germany-Ukraine, Ukraine would be left without options, always starting from the fact that Spain wins its match. The Selection would remain with 10 and the Germans with 9. In the last game, Löw’s men would be the first to win as visitors. The rest of the results eliminate him.
What happens if … Spain ties with Switzerland?
If Spain draws, they would stay with eight points and lose the lead if Germany-Ukraine do not end in a draw. If that duel ended in a draw, everything would continue as it is now and ours would be worth a draw on the last day and the Ukrainians not winning. Of course, if Spain draws it will need to score yes or yes against Germany to be first. A defeat condemns him to second or third place.
If Germany wins their duel against Ukraine, would stay with 9 points compared to 8 for Spain. Thus, those of Luis Enrique would be leaders if they beat the Germans.
If Ukraine is victorious against Germany, would stay with 9 points compared to 8 for Spain. In that case, Spain would have to draw against the Germans on the last day and for Ukraine to lose or win and hope that Switzerland scratches at least one tie.
What happens if … Spain loses to Switzerland?
In the worst possible situation for the national team, not even a defeat leaves first place unviable. Spain would stay with 7 points, waiting for what happens in Germany-Ukraine.
If Germany beat Ukraine, Spain would have 7 points, Germany 9, Ukraine 6 and Switzerland 5. The leadership, therefore, would be for one of the two hypothetical favorites. If Spain won the final round, it would qualify for the decisive phase.
If Ukraine beat Germany there would be a very different assumption. Those of Shevchenko would add 9 in their locker; the Selection, 7; and those of Löw, 6. In that case, not even the triumph of Spain in the last day would guarantee anything. I would need to win yes or yes, but also hope that Ukraine will only score one point against Switzerland.
If Germany and Ukraine tied, there would be a triple tie at seven points. The resolution of these tables would have to wait for the last appointment, when the direct confrontations would be completed. In case the final tie was maintained, something only possible by drawing Ukraine against Switzerland and Spain and Germany with each other, it would be necessary to go to the goals to define who would be the leader. Just one certainty: it would not be Ukraine.
If Germany and Ukraine tied, there would be the aforementioned tie at seven points. Spain would be the leader if they beat Germany in the last match, as they have the ‘goal average’ won with Ukraine. If the National Team draws, it would need Ukraine to tie and decide by goals, or lose, also leaving Switzerland with eight points, again reaching another triple tie.
Pending schedule
Fifth matchday (November 14): Switzerland-Spain and Germany-Ukraine.
Sixth day (November 17): Spain-Germany and Switzerland-Ukraine.
Tiebreaker criteria
Points achieved in direct confrontations between both teams.
Goal difference in direct confrontations between both teams.
Goals scored in direct confrontations between both teams.
Away goals scored in direct confrontations between both teams.
If more than two teams are tied and after applying these tiebreaker criteria, they are still tied, these criteria will be used exclusively for this subgroup or pair of teams.
Goal difference in all group matches.
Goals scored in all group matches.
Away goals scored in all group matches.
Victories in all group matches.
Away wins in all group matches.
Discipline points (red card: 3 points, yellow card: 1 point, expulsion for double yellow in a match: 3 points).
UEFA coefficient for national teams.
Competition dates
The leaders of the groups will have to wait, if the pandemic allows it, until next October 6, 2021 to play the final phase and choose to win the title of the second edition of the competition. At the moment, the venue is not known. UEFA announced that Italy, the Netherlands and Poland have volunteered, Although the decision has not yet been made. In March 2022, a relegation playoff would be played between the four bottom teams in League C.
