Sudan is heading towards complete state collapse

As a result of a series of bloody conflicts, bad leadership, endemic corruption, long periods of complete international isolation and chronic economic vulnerability, Sudan has been classified as a failed or fragile state in academic literature and media reports for decades. The Fund for Peace’s Fragile State Index, for example, has ranked Sudan among the world’s 10 most fragile/failed states every single year since its launch in 2006 (and placed it in the top five for 12 consecutive years). Nonetheless, in large part thanks to the Sudanese people’s resilience and determination to achieve true democracy, the country always managed to avoid complete state collapse and a descent into deadly anarchy – until now.

Today, Sudan is under attack from an ISIL-like rogue militia and with the international community seemingly unwilling to take the necessary steps to protect the country’s fragile institutions, it is facing imminent state collapse – a possibility that could prove catastrophic not only for the long-suffering people of Sudan but the entire region.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group formed in the 2000s to help Sudan’s longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir hold on to power, now controls large swathes of territory across the country. The militia, mostly made out of ethnic Arab fighters from across the region, has taken over most of Darfur, including West Darfur, where it embarked on a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Masalit people indigenous to the area. Many Masalit judges, lawyers, doctors, teachers, aid workers and other professionals have reportedly been killed in what appears to be a systematic effort to murder potential leaders.

West Darfur’s governor, Khamis Abakar, was also brutally killed, and his abused body gruesomely exhibited, after accusing the RSF of “genocide” in a televised interview and making an appeal for international intervention. Reports say that members of his security detail were also hacked to death.

In the seven Darfuri cities currently under the control of the RSF, fighters have burnt and looted all food stores, attacked and intimidated civilians and cut all communication lines with the outside world. One can only imagine the horrors still taking place in these localities, hidden from the gaze of the international community.

The capital Khartoum, where the RSF has been fighting against the Sudanese military and state since April 15, is also in ruins. Militia men have occupied public facilities, including hospitals, and looted almost every store. Government and civilian offices and businesses in the city centre, as well as homes in middle-class neighbourhoods, have also been looted and left in ruins. The terror RSF is inflicting on the city has brought state institutions to a complete halt.

No government service, from rubbish collection to medical aid, is available in the city and surrounding areas. There are no traffic controls or functioning courts. Essential documents, like birth or death certificates and passports, cannot be obtained.

Most civil servants, educators, doctors and other essential workers have left the city for safer destinations abroad or elsewhere in the country. Schools and universities are closed, and most public buildings have either been destroyed or are being used as barracks by the militia.

Now the Sudanese state only has a ghostly presence in the capital, and it is barely functioning in other regions.

Sure, this is not Sudan’s first existential crisis. The country has been plagued with composite crises and serious threats to its viability since at least the late 1980s. It went through many deadly famines, several episodes of near bankruptcy, and debilitating civil conflicts.

As a result of a series of bloody conflicts, bad leadership, endemic corruption, long periods of complete international isolation and chronic economic vulnerability, Sudan has been classified as a failed or fragile state in academic literature and media reports for decades. The Fund for Peace’s Fragile State Index, for example, has ranked Sudan among the world’s 10 most fragile/failed states every single year since its launch in 2006 (and placed it in the top five for 12 consecutive years). Nonetheless, in large part thanks to the Sudanese people’s resilience and determination to achieve true democracy, the country always managed to avoid complete state collapse and a descent into deadly anarchy – until now.

Today, Sudan is under attack from an ISIL-like rogue militia and with the international community seemingly unwilling to take the necessary steps to protect the country’s fragile institutions, it is facing imminent state collapse – a possibility that could prove catastrophic not only for the long-suffering people of Sudan but the entire region.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group formed in the 2000s to help Sudan’s longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir hold on to power, now controls large swathes of territory across the country. The militia, mostly made out of ethnic Arab fighters from across the region, has taken over most of Darfur, including West Darfur, where it embarked on a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Masalit people indigenous to the area. Many Masalit judges, lawyers, doctors, teachers, aid workers and other professionals have reportedly been killed in what appears to be a systematic effort to murder potential leaders.

West Darfur’s governor, Khamis Abakar, was also brutally killed, and his abused body gruesomely exhibited, after accusing the RSF of “genocide” in a televised interview and making an appeal for international intervention. Reports say that members of his security detail were also hacked to death.

In the seven Darfuri cities currently under the control of the RSF, fighters have burnt and looted all food stores, attacked and intimidated civilians and cut all communication lines with the outside world. One can only imagine the horrors still taking place in these localities, hidden from the gaze of the international community.

The capital Khartoum, where the RSF has been fighting against the Sudanese military and state since April 15, is also in ruins. Militia men have occupied public facilities, including hospitals, and looted almost every store. Government and civilian offices and businesses in the city centre, as well as homes in middle-class neighbourhoods, have also been looted and left in ruins. The terror RSF is inflicting on the city has brought state institutions to a complete halt.

No government service, from rubbish collection to medical aid, is available in the city and surrounding areas. There are no traffic controls or functioning courts. Essential documents, like birth or death certificates and passports, cannot be obtained.

Most civil servants, educators, doctors and other essential workers have left the city for safer destinations abroad or elsewhere in the country. Schools and universities are closed, and most public buildings have either been destroyed or are being used as barracks by the militia.

Now the Sudanese state only has a ghostly presence in the capital, and it is barely functioning in other regions.

Sure, this is not Sudan’s first existential crisis. The country has been plagued with composite crises and serious threats to its viability since at least the late 1980s. It went through many deadly famines, several episodes of near bankruptcy, and debilitating civil conflicts.