Trump Scores ‘The Biggest Lead’ Yet Against Biden
Former President Donald Trump scored his largest lead yet against President Biden Sunday in a new NBC poll, as voters gave the incumbent poor marks across the board.
Trump, 77, notched a 47% to 42% lead over Biden, 81, with registered voters, marking an increase from his 46% to 44% edge recorded in a November poll from the outlet.
“This is the biggest lead NBC has ever had in 16 polls for Donald Trump over Joe Biden,” NBC’s political correspondent Steve Kornacki told “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
NBC has conducted polling on Trump vs. Biden for roughly five years. Historically, Biden has had the edge over his predecessor, but that started to shift last year.
Last July, Biden touted a 49% to 45% lead over Trump, but by September they were dead even at 46%. Then in November, Trump jumped ahead.
The latest poll sampled 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and was taken from Jan. 26 to 30.
When third-party candidates were added to the mix, Trump’s edge expanded to six points, dispatching Biden 41% to 35%, with a Libertarian candidate nabbing 5%, Green Party getting 5%, and No Labels notching 4%.
The poll did not test environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or independent presidential candidate Cornel West.
Former US ambassador to the UN and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley bested Biden 45% to 36% in the survey.
Biden’s campaign declined to comment on the poll. However, a former 2020 Biden campaign pollster, Matt Barreto flagged some concerns with its sampling to The Post.
“It over-represents white voters and conservatives and under-represents Democrats and Latinos. It’s critical to point out a poll’s shortcomings, just as much as its findings, before pundits jump to conclusions about the state of the race — especially when it appears as an outlier when placed in the context of other polls,” he said.
“We know that 2024 will be extremely close and we also know pre-election polls will be all over the place.”
Separately, a subsample of Republican voters surveyed favored Trump over Haley 79% to 19% in the GOP primary contest, where Trump is the overwhelming favorite.
NBC’s poll also showed a handful of warning signs for Biden ahead of the potential Nov. 5 rematch against Trump.
Biden’s job approval rating plunged to 37%, with 60% disapproving of his performance in office. That is the lowest rating NBC has recorded since former President George W. Bush.
When stacked up against Trump in the poll, Biden nabbed 41% support from Latino voters to his predecessor’s 42%. Among younger voters aged 18-34, Biden tops Trump 38% to 26%.
Despite low unemployment and cooling inflation under Biden’s watch, 55% of voters said they trust Trump more with the economy than Biden at 33%.
By a margin of 21 points, respondents said they trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to having the “necessary mental and physical health to be president.”
Biden’s campaign has repeatedly brushed aside the bleak polling and pointed to Democrats outperforming polls and expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, as well as their victories in a slew of 2023 off-year races.
Still, on some issues, Biden secured an advantage over Trump, including trust among voters for protecting democracy at 43% to 41% and on abortion by a margin of 12 points.
“We cannot lose this campaign for the good of the country. It’s not about me. It goes well beyond me. It is about the country. I think everybody knows it,” Biden proclaimed after his smashing primary victory in South Dakota.
The president and his allies have cast the 2024 general election race as a battle to preserve American democracy.
NBC’s findings echo a myriad of other polling finding Trump ahead of Biden, though most of the polling has the two largely within the margin of error.
The 45th president is also generally ahead of Biden in most of the RCP aggregates for battleground states, which will ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
Trump sports a 46.7% to 44.6% lead over Biden in the most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling.
