Tunisia Enters Electoral Silence Ahead of Presidential Election Tomorrow, Sunday

Tunisia entered the electoral silence phase today, Saturday, as the presidential election is set to take place tomorrow, Sunday. Competing in the race are the incumbent president, Kais Saied, and two other candidates, one of whom was imprisoned last month, while the other heads a political party. Around ten million voters have been called to the polls, with voting starting abroad on Friday.

Saied faces two opponents: the head of the People’s Party, Zouhair Maghzaoui, who was once an ally of Saied but has recently become a critic. The other, Ayachi Zammal, was relatively unknown before the campaign but has seemingly gained popularity lately. Zammal was arrested last month for allegedly forging electoral documents and was sentenced to 20 months in prison on September 18. On Tuesday, he was handed an additional 12-year sentence on similar charges.

Here are some key milestones in Tunisia since the 2011 revolution, ahead of the presidential election on Sunday, in which President Kais Saied is considered the favorite to win:

The Jasmine Revolution (2011)

On January 14, 2011, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after 23 years of unchallenged rule, following a popular uprising sparked by street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi setting himself on fire on December 17. The revolution, known as the “Jasmine Revolution,” resulted in 338 deaths and more than 2,100 injuries.

The Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood (2011)

On October 23, 2011, the previously banned Ennahda movement, which was legalized in March 2011, won 89 out of 217 seats in the Constituent Assembly in Tunisia’s first free elections. In December 2011, the assembly elected left-wing activist Moncef Marzouki, an opponent of Ben Ali, as President.

Assassination of Opponents (2013)

On February 6, 2013, left-wing opposition leader Chokri Belaid was assassinated in Tunis. Later, on July 25, 2013, nationalist leftist MP Mohamed Brahmi was killed near the capital. These assassinations, claimed by extremists, triggered a political crisis.

Second Constitution of the Tunisian Republic (2014)

On January 26, 2014, the Tunisian Parliament adopted the country’s second constitution, followed by the formation of a technocratic government, with Islamists stepping down from power. On October 26, 2014, the secular Nidaa Tounes party, led by Beji Caid Essebsi, won the legislative elections, defeating Ennahda. Essebsi became Tunisia’s first democratically elected president by direct popular vote in December.

Terrorist Attacks (2015)

In 2015, the Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for three major attacks in Tunisia: On March 18, 21 foreign tourists and a Tunisian police officer were killed in an attack on the Bardo Museum in Tunis. On June 26, an attack on a hotel near Sousse claimed the lives of 38 people, including 30 Britons. On November 24, a suicide bombing targeted the Presidential Guard, killing 12.

In March 2016, dozens of extremists attacked security installations in Ben Guerdane (southeast Tunisia), resulting in the deaths of 13 security personnel and seven civilians, while dozens of extremists were killed. The security situation improved in subsequent years, but the state of emergency declared in 2015 continues to be extended regularly.

Death of Beji Caid Essebsi (2019)

In July 2019, President Beji Caid Essebsi died at the age of 92, just a few months before the end of his term. On October 6, Ennahda became the largest party in the Parliament, securing a quarter of the seats in the third legislative elections since the revolution, though it fell short of forming a majority government. On October 13, Kais Saied, an independent academic who campaigned against traditional political parties, was elected President of Tunisia.

Kais Saied’s Seizure of Executive Power (2021)

On July 25, 2021, President Saied froze the activities of Parliament for 30 days and dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, following protests against Tunisia’s leadership. These decisions came amid a severe health crisis, with criticisms of the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in over 20,000 deaths in a country of 12 million. Ennahda described Saied’s actions as a “coup against the constitution and the revolution.”

In March 2022, Saied dissolved Parliament completely after former MPs held an online session. A month later, he also dissolved the Supreme Judicial Council. On April 22, 2022, Saied granted himself the authority to appoint the head and members of the Independent Electoral Commission.

Financial Crisis

In October 2022, Tunisia reached a preliminary agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a $2 billion loan in exchange for reforms to address a severe financial crisis. However, Saied rejected the proposed reforms, labeling them as “impositions.” In April 2023, he called for resuming the stalled phosphate production to avoid needing such loans. Agricultural output has also declined due to six consecutive years of drought.

Arrests and Trials of Opponents (2023–2024)

On May 15, 2023, Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Ennahda movement and one of Saied’s strongest opponents, was sentenced to one year in prison for “glorifying terrorism,” with the sentence increased to 15 months on appeal in October. In early February 2024, he was sentenced to three years in prison on charges of “foreign funding.”

The 2023 legislative elections for a parliament with limited powers saw a voter turnout of just 12%.

On July 19, 2023, Saied announced his candidacy for a second term. On August 8, he dismissed Prime Minister Ahmed Hachani and appointed Social Affairs Minister Kamel Meddouri in his place, while also reshuffling most of the government.

On September 2, 2023, the electoral commission approved three candidates for the presidential election, with Kais Saied as the frontrunner.