Western Countries Face Dilemma over Syria’s Blacklisted new Rulers

With the dust still swirling after the dramatic collapse of the Syrian government, some Western governments have hinted that they may be open to working with emerging new rulers that they currently consider to be part of a terrorist organization.

Three key European capitals have all indicated that they could change their stance on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the blacklisted Islamist militant group that swept into Damascus on December 8.

This came after comments by U.S. President Joe Biden, reflecting on how the group’s rhetoric had changed as it sought to distance itself from its previous affiliation with Al-Qaeda: “As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

President-elect Donald Trump’s immediate response revealed little about how Syria policy might evolve on his watch, beyond stating simply that it is “not our fight.” But his administration will also have to decide how to deal with Syria.

“I suspect there’s going to be a lot of conversation about what kind of government HTS is going to form,” said Fatima Ayub, a Washington-based political analyst and researcher on the Middle East and South Asia.

“Maybe we will see some dynamics like we saw with Sudan, with sanctions relief in return for normalization with Israel. So, there are a lot of big questions on the horizon, and I’m not even sure HTS necessarily has the answers [at this stage].”

It is clear the group’s position as a leading player in Syria following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad presents Western governments with a dilemma. Previously a relatively minor armed group, controlling Syria’s northwestern Idlib Province, it was easy to proscribe and largely ignore.

But HTS now appears too important for that, so Western governments seem to be carefully rowing back.

France’s acting foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told France Info radio on December 8 that HTS was “an Islamist movement” that must “demonstrate its sincere desire to rid the transition of extremism, Islamism, and jihadism.” He added that an envoy would leave for Damascus this week.

Germany took a similarly equivocal line. Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said moves by HTS to distance itself from its past would be judged by its treatment of civilians and ethnic and religious minorities.

In Britain, Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden said a “swift decision” would need to be made about whether to remove HTS from the government’s list of designated terrorist organizations.

It is not yet clear what role HTS will play in a post-Assad Syria. But if, as seems likely, it emerges as a key player, Western governments appear keen to keep their options open.

“I think the West should deal with the new reality on the ground,” said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.

“They should put forward clear benchmarks for HTS, and if they meet them, they should reconsider their sanctions/designations that will only be an impediment to peace and security to post-Assad Syria.”

This approach would differ to that taken toward Taliban-run Afghanistan. There, Western governments have kept their distance from an extremist group whose widespread human rights abuses and severe restrictions on women they have repeatedly condemned.

“I don’t see HTS doing things like banning girls from going to school. I think they are more moderate than the Taliban,” said U.S.-based analyst Ayub.

“HTS has a lot of questions to ask themselves, because fighting a war is very different than governing a country. And we saw, you know, the Taliban struggle to make this shift in Afghanistan. I still think there are a lot of open questions.”

And even as Western governments appeared to shift cautiously on HTS, they have also made it clear that they take nothing on trust. Biden stressed that the group had its own “grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses.”

They are also readying for a scenario in which a stable new government fails to emerge, and the threat of a resurgence by the Islamic State (IS) extremist group. On December 8, U.S. officials said warplanes carried out strikes on what they called 75 IS targets in Syria.

Another concern is stocks of chemical weapons held by the Assad government, and whose hands they might now fall into. Israel said it had struck facilities in connection with this.

The situation in Syria also has a potential impact on domestic politics in a number of countries. Millions of Syrians fled the country’s devastating civil war that erupted in 2011, and questions are being asked about how many of them will wish — or be able — to return home.

In Germany, it was announced that asylum decisions for Syrians would be frozen until the situation became clearer. A senior opposition figure called for financial incentives for Syrian refugees to return. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said it was “too soon” for such talk.

Hundreds of them have formed lines on Syria’s borders with Lebanon and Turkey. The presence of large Syrian refugee populations has been a source of tension in both countries, as it has been in Europe.