What Truly Lies Behind Trump’s Direct Negotiations With Hamas? – Analysis
If the US Trump administration is going to prevent an outcome that could result in the loss of millions of lives, also heavily burdening the American military at a time when Washington is desperately trying to assert itself in the new multi-polar order, it must act to contain the inevitable clash.
Since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January, it would be an understatement to say America’s West Asia policy has been confusing, specifically as it pertains to Gaza.
What we may be seeing, is Washington’s attempt to save Israel from itself. At least, this is the only way to make sense of the US holding direct negotiations with Hamas for the first time ever.
From the offensive and bewildering AI video named “Trump Gaza” and threats to ethnically cleanse the entirety of the besieged coastal enclave, to direct negotiations with Hamas.
It appears as if the United States has taken over in leading the course of the Gaza Ceasefire negotiations, which are aimed at freeing the remaining Israeli captives held in Gaza, reconstruction, post-war governance, and ending the war.
Netanyahu’s Political Survival and Trump
The Gaza ceasefire, implemented on January 19, was almost word-for-word the same exact proposal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected nearly a year prior.
Even though Netanyahu had from the get-go pledged to return to the war after phase one of the three-phase deal, under immense pressure from his far-right coalition allies, the situation is yet to return to a full-scale conflict.
Donald Trump’s administration, unlike that of his predecessor, has a lot of political capital amongst Israelis, especially the far-right of the political spectrum there and the President’s entire cabinet is staffed with hardline right wing Zionists. Yet, the most pro-Israeli administration in US history is now negotiating with Hamas, so what is happening here?
US envoy Adam Boehler has publicly defended his private direct talks with Hamas officials, which did not include Israel, asserting that this strategy is designed to reach an agreement. While most analysts have invested their time in analysing what this means for the US-Israel relationship, focusing on looking at he-said-she said reporting, almost everyone has missed the elephant in the room.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has spent over a year working to purge elements within Israel’s political, military and intelligence establishment, essentially surrounding himself with yes men and ensuring that all executive decisions are made by him; where possible.
For example, the War Cabinet was dissolved, after top Israeli political figures like opposition leader, Benny Gantz, and former Israeli army chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, left it, stating that it had become paralysed due to infighting.
Later, Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, also resigned from his position and was replaced with Netanyahu loyalist Israel Katz, while Gideon Saar was made foreign minister. More recently, the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, along with his Mossad counterpart – who were leading the Israeli ceasefire negotiating team – were demoted, as the role was handed over to the PM’s loyal aide Ron Dermer instead.
The Shin Bet chief has had a well documented recent history of quarrels with Netanyahu. So, placing Dermer – a man with strong connections inside the US – as his negotiations lead, meant that the Israeli PM has been easily able to control the course of the negotiations, pushing the ceasefire to the brink of collapse.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has been making a steady stream of outrageous comments that have pleased Netanyahu’s coalition partners, who believe that the American President’s rhetoric could translate into a US-backed effort to ethnically cleanse Gaza. This has bought Netanyahu time and makes him appear as if he is receiving considerable backing from Washington.
In order to make sense of this, we must first put aside the rhetoric and the pledges made by Trump, that appear implausible for him to follow through on, especially considering the threats made against Hamas to release all Israeli captives by specific deadlines, which ended up being bluffs.
The Trump administration’s pursuit of direct negotiations with Hamas did not occur by accident. This historic move signals that the US does not trust Israel to negotiate a settlement alone.
Also, the threats issued by Trump have translated to an extensive Egyptian Proposal for a post-war Gaza that has been ratified by Arab Leaders. This step may not solve the issue, but is moving the process forward.
Meanwhile, if we take a look at Israel’s internal political scene, Netanyahu is slowly adopting a more dictatorial rule. The newly instated Israeli military’s chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, who himself has maintained a longtime relationship with the PM, is now purging voices critical of the Israeli Premier from within the armed forces, such as its former spokesperson Daniel Hagari.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s solution for the survival of the Israeli State is explicit and falls in line with the demands of his right-wing coalition’s expansionist endeavors; he seeks “total victory” in a “seven front war”. Yet many actors within Israel’s own so-called “deep-State”, are not in agreement with this vision.
We see these critical voices in disagreement with Netanyahu from every sector, including the Mossad, Shin Bet, private corporations, the army and political opposition. Even former Israeli Prime Ministers such as Ehud Olmert have warned of Israel’s impending collapse if it continues on its current unhinged trajectory.
An important point to note is that Zionist power does not only lie in Israel, but also in the United States, where there are also many concerned Zionists who seek to save the Israeli regime from its current predicament.
Additionally, Netanyahu may appear to be some kind of hardline ideologue, but his history suggests instead he is more of a political survivor concerned with self preservation.
If the US is indeed trying to find a solution independent of the Netanyahu-run government, essentially forcing a solution upon it, it would make sense of all the contradictory statements and moves made by the Trump administration. On the one hand, the US cannot override Netanyahu, so it must make moves to support him publicly, but if it is truly working to save Israel from its current path, it will have to force its hand while making it seem as if everything was actually Netanyahu’s idea.
So Where Does This Lead Us?
If the above-mentioned theory is true, the issues surrounding Israel’s fate are not only tied to Gaza but the wider region as a whole. Which may explain why the US has worked together with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria to merge with the new administration in Damascus headed by Ahmed al-Shara’a.
While the Israelis are threatening Balkanization and chaos, which could lead to a direct confrontation inside Syria, the US quickly worked to contain the situation there.
Also, the other major issues pertain to Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is possible that the US may see a regional flare up as inevitable and it is likely that Donald Trump will decide to directly support an Israeli attack against Iran, but work to bring it to a stalemate after the fighting greatly intensifies.
When it comes to Gaza, there is a reason that the war has not re-opened yet, despite Israel imposing a full siege on the territory, comparable to what they inflicted on the civilian population directly following October 7, 2023. This has triggered an immediate response from Yemen’s Ansarallah, who moved to re-impose their blockade in the Red Sea.
Even if the situation returns to full-scale conflict, it is still possible that a deal will be carved out in order to bring the war to a complete close. This could even be aided by a regional trade off between Israel and Iran.
As of now, the regional war is still open but is in a state of stagnation. There is a tense feeling across the region, making everyone anxious. The recent declaration by Qatar, that it is demanding the Israeli nuclear program be placed under IAEA supervision indicates how serious the threat of total war is.
Yet, the US, which will undoubtedly play a role, appears to be in no position to hedge its bet on a victory in a massive cataclysmic war that could end up leading in any direction, including the deployment of nuclear weapons.
If the US Trump administration is going to prevent an outcome that could result in the loss of millions of lives, also heavily burdening the American military at a time when Washington is desperately trying to assert itself in the new multi-polar order, it must act to contain the inevitable clash.
How it does that and whether it will be successful is yet to be seen. However, if the US wants to save Israel from itself, it would make sense that American Zionists would be working alongside their contacts in Israel to ensure an outcome that prevents a chaotic total war that could easily lead to the Zionist project’s collapse.
By
– Robert Inlakesh
