Why Ukraine may clear Macron’s path to power

6 March، 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to sharper fractures in European geopolitics, yet it could help to ease Emmanuel Macron’s path to reelection next month as he seeks to become the first French leader for two decades to win a second presidential term.

While Macron has long been the frontrunner, becoming the first candidate to receive the legally required 500 endorsements from elected officials, his prospects for victory have grown in recent days. About 21 million viewers watched his address to the nation this week that focused on Ukraine and the consequences of the conflict, with many of them welcoming his activist approach to the crisis.

This has boosted his poll numbers, which had largely remained stable since April last year. The two candidates who win the most votes in the first-round ballot on April 10 will compete against each other in a runoff election two weeks later, on April 24.

On Thursday night, Macron formally announced that he will run for a second term. He has long indicated that he intended to seek reelection but his campaign plans have changed somewhat since the Ukraine conflict began.

In the past few weeks, the centrist president has dedicated most of his time to diplomatic talks with world leaders and coordination with European and other Western allies. The goal is clearly to position himself as a war leader, seeking to take strides on the global stage amid a series of wider global challenges, including the pandemic.

To be sure, at about 40 percent, Macron’s approval rating is not sky high. Yet this is significantly higher than those of his predecessors, Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, after they had been in office for almost five years. Both of them ultimately proved to be unpopular single-term heads of state. Indeed, Hollande, the least popular French president since records began, decided not to seek reelection, making him the first incumbent during the Fifth Republic not to try for a second term.

The French president’s goal is to position himself as a war leader, seeking to take strides on the global stage amid a series of wider global challenges.

Andrew Hammond

One of the reasons Ukraine has upended the French presidential campaign is that it forced two far-right contenders, who had previously performed strongly in polls, to explain their hitherto pro-Russia stance. It has also undercut one of the key themes espoused by both of them, that France is a nation in decline, which might now be ill-matched to a period during which the EU is surprising many with a renewed sense of unity.

Marine Le Pen, who reached the final round of the previous presidential election, winning about 40 percent of the vote, has had to distance herself from Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Campaign leaflets that showed her shaking his hand, more than 1 million of which had already been printed according to some media reports, were reportedly withdrawn by her campaign team.

Meanwhile, Eric Zemmour, who said during a rally last year that the US had “done everything it could to separate us from Russia,” appeared eager this week to shift the public debate away from Eastern Europe. He said “it is not Russia that threatens France” but rather “the great replacement and the Islamization of the country.”

It is unclear whether the outpouring of support for Ukrainian war refugees across Europe will make it more difficult for Le Pen and Zemmour to keep the French public focused on identity politics. Whereas almost all of the leading candidates favored restrictions on migration just over a week ago, surveys now show broad support for welcoming refugees, from Ukraine specifically, into France even though there is still a wider angst about immigration among large sections of the population.

Another reason why Macron’s chances have improved is the weakness of the left, from which he has co-opted votes. In previous elections, concerns over growing inequality and surging inflation might have significantly increased the chances of the Socialist Party, whose presidents have governed France for about half of the past four decades. Yet that party’s candidate, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, is currently scoring only about 2 percent in the polls.

However, as Europe enters its most volatile period in years, if not decades, Macron is by no means guaranteed reelection. So far, he has only partially succeeded in his goal of reducing the unemployment rate and re-industrialising France through innovation-led policies.

The crowded field of candidates running against him might still be able to capitalize on issues that could prove damaging for the incumbent. There remains widespread anti-establishment discontent, including the so-called yellow shirt protests, fueled by economic pain that could now be intensified following the sanctions imposed on Russia, which will result in higher gas, electricity and food prices in the coming weeks.

Taken together, this might make for a highly unpredictable last few weeks of campaigning. While Macron has a clear edge, and remains the favorite, his lead is not insurmountable in what are, politically and economically, hugely shifting sands.